Maryland Housing Statistics April 2009
It has been a few months since I've posted. I wanted to update everyone with the most recent Maryland Housing Statistics as of April 2009. The data is from www.mris.com.
This analysis covers all Maryland Counties including Allegany County, Anne County, Baltimore City, Baltimore County County, Calvert County, Caroline County, Carroll County, Cecil County, Charles County, Dorchester County, Frederick County, Garrett County, Harford County, Howard County, Kent County, Montgomery County, Prince George's County, Queen Anne's County, Somerset County, St. Mary's County, Talbot County, Washington County, Wicomico County and Worcester County. Additionally I have calculated the Baltimore Metro region (city and 5 counties) and the Baltimore Metro region excluding Baltimore City. The analysis was broken down by 5 different metrics:
Housing Sales, page 1 - 9
Median Price, page 10 - 18
Average Price, page 19 - 27
Inventory, page 28 - 36
Months of Supply, page 37 - 45
Many people are wondering if we will see recovery in the coming months. My opinion on housing prices is that it lags any general economic recovery. I also do not believe we are even half way to the bottom. I'm personally targeting 2012 with the understanding that 70-80% of all the correction will be complete while any remaining correction will play out from 2012 - 2020.
The next wave of the housing crisis will be the high end homes since the food chain of move up buyers has been destroyed and many owners of these homes are in interest only loans and/or are currently struggling to make the principle and interest payments.
I'm still not sure where I think prices will fall to, but I believe it to be somewhere between 2000 and 2002 prices. Should prices continue to fall below 2000 prices, then I believe the entire economy will need a reset.
As always please feel free to communicate with me via email at bubblemore@gmail.com
April 2009 Maryland Housing Statistics
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5 comments:
Re: home prices are a lagging indicator? Uhh better check with Calculated risk on that. Real estate investment is a LEADING indicator (note how the hard hit markets have home sales up for 10-12 months straight). He says prices follow (more like a conincident indicator)
Maryland is definitely behind in its housing downturn, but isnt your inventory now down YOY? If so (assuming you follow the rest of the US), you guys are about 1 year from bottom.
Good luck to ya!
@anon 5:59,
Your confusing home prices with RE investment; they are different.
I said housing prices will lag any general economic recovery.
Inventory may be down (excluding shadow inventory read CR for that) but so are sales in most counties in Maryland. Hence months of supply is up YOY in most counties in Maryland.
Going back to CR, Bill McBride expects a general economic recovery by the end of the year or 1Q 2010 while he expects housing prices to continue to fall and unemployment to continue to rise for a year after any recovery (L shaped).
Thanks for the analysis, always fun to look at each county and see outliers.
Kevin - I dont think I am confusing things - I said RE investment was a leader (and it is up).
What I am also saying is that prices (generally) lag RE investment by 8-12 months. A lag of 8-12 months is not a lagging indicator, its a coincident indicator.
Regardless, you are doing ok as MD is not up in RE investment (maybe up very very slightly in very few areas) - so you dont need to worry about prices for a while. However, in no circumstance is price rises a laggard.
Glad to see you still posting.
bill (not B. McBride)
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