Friday, September 12, 2008

Maryand faces HUGE revenue shortfall....didn't we play this game last year?

On queue.... with the slumping housing market and the topped out consumer not driving around buying stuff they do not need the states treasury has taken a major hit. The story over at the Sun paints a somber picture.

A litany of painful economic news hit home yesterday when Maryland's fiscal leaders learned the state faces a $432 million revenue shortfall that could rise to nearly $1 billion in the next fiscal year.

Slumping tax revenues will mean steep state agency budget cuts in the months ahead, and will require Gov. Martin O'Malley to scale back the spending plan he presents to the General Assembly in January. State leaders have begun meeting to decide where to trim hundreds of millions of dollars, and some have discussed eliminating employee pay raises and shifting teacher pension costs to counties.

The bad news is expected to continue. O'Malley plans to announce today that his administration will delay $1.1 billion in transportation projects over the next six years. The projects are funded through a transportation account distinct from the general budget.
Ok so Maryland raised the income and sales taxes last year. The federal government could let the Bush tax cuts expire next year out of inertia(blame it on them is going be a theme next year for all tough decisions), and the counties are starting to freak out with 30% shortfalls because the great house flipping transfer tax budget padding is gone.

We all need to be involved in this and demand the politicians cut budgets, freeze hiring and likely freeze salaries. This is going to be the new reality. We are heading into a L shaped recession which means L shaped revenue projections. We have a lot of cushy bureaucrats making high salaries that you have to wonder, what exactly are they doing? Why is this person getting cream of the crop health and retirement benefits while the Carpenter who helped build houses these past 10 years is out of work?

One of the things being brought to the front again is slots. Seriously I am tired of the slots as a revenue solution. We all know that the social costs are high and really why is robbing the gullible considered ok but somehow we can't get more affordable college tuition which would be of a better way to drive growth by higher skilled jobs?

The dire forecasts are likely to bolster the call from some quarters for voters to approve the legalization of slot-machine gambling in the state through a November referendum, which would bring a new revenue stream to state coffers. The projections also have stoked a debate over the level of state spending. Lawmakers are required to adopt a balanced budget, and if state revenues fall short of expectations during the year, the Board of Public Works has the authority to roll back spending. Budget Secretary T. Eloise Foster declined to say where possible spending cuts might be made but said: "There will be no sacred cows."


How come the county and state governments did not fill up the rainy day funds with all this revenue when times were good? Why is it that the taxpayers in this state have not yet revolted? Is this the year it finally happens?

And what happens to boy wonder governor, you know the guy who was all going to lower our power bills back down to levels of 20 years ago with artificial caps, but instead of gets in the way new power plant construction? This is not Baltimore City where you just raise taxes because your voters won't stand up and fight city hall. He's going to have to do something he's never had to do yet, cut off the democratic voters on the pubic dole looking for their handout. This is not just some poor joe with an $8 hr make work job, but also the 100k+ salary jobs that need to go. We'll see if he has the leadership to rise above cronyism and do the right things to balance the budget.

18 comments:

flipdippy said...

Boy wonder no more...as they said in the 60s batman tv series, boy blunder is more like it.

You can forget about cutting spending. The state Democrats in the legislature will fight most cuts tooth and nail.

Like I said in a previous comment, the only solution for O'Malley politically is to kick the problems downstream. If he can't force a lot of these costs on to the counties, he'll borrow against future revenues and talk about the bright future to pay for it here in MD.

If O'Malley punts to the counties, fully expect a significant hike in property taxes in Baltimore County next year. The teachers went without a pay raise this year, there will be unholy hell to pay if they don't get a MAJOR pay increase next year. Add to that possible pension responsibilities, and you've got a recipe for more homeowner pain.

Infinity8Ball said...

I hate all this junk. Who knows if he'll actually cut costs... like they SHOULD. I fear the same as flippy, they'll just try to pass it off to somebody else. It's what they're good at.

bill said...

Cut state employee pay and jobs?

Not gonna happen. Most people in this state work for some branch of local state or federal gubmint.

Prepare for more tax increases.

Folks in this state are mostly Democrats, and Democrats loooove taxes.

Anonymous said...

"We'll see if he has the leadership to rise above cronyism and do the right things to balance the budget."

Are you serious?

Leadership? Rise above cronyism? Do the right thing? Ahhhaahhhaaahhaaa

Also, Bill 5:14, man you are RIGHT ON. Never underestimate the stupidity and sheepleness of Maryland voters. Maryland voters just love having it shoved to them. Why else would they keep electing these clowns?

Stoic said...

"How come the county and state governments did not fill up the rainy day funds with all this revenue when times were good?"

Maybe we should ask Bobby Erhlich? After all, taxpayer money belongs to the taxpayer, not in some rainy day fund in case of some disaster. You can't trust that damned guvmint not to waste it paying people competitive salaries (with private business). Shit, bureaucrats should work for free, the worthless parasites.

Anonymous said...

Why don't you all ask Ehrlich where all those hard earned taxpayer dollars went? Wasn't he the one presiding over the boom? He could have put some away for a rainy day and did not, handing that bag to boy wonder.

Fact is, Maryland is one of the most fiscally responsible states in the country, and taxpayers save millions of dollars because the government never spend more than they take in.

To sit here and blast local and state elected officials for a global economic crisis makes me wonder if this isn't just a case of political opportunism. The only people responsible for regulation that would have prevented the housing bubble were in Congress. Bubble occured from approxiamately 2000-2006, correct? Who controlled Congress and the White House during the runup? It was all Republicans who refused to end the free market mortgage party because everyone, including their home-owning taxpayers, were making boatloads of money.

Want to know why us 18-30 year olds are going to be voting Democratic in droves this November? Because we have seen what unbridled Republican rule causes and it is very, very bad. Regale me all you want about how bad things were under Jimmy Carter and how he wrecked the economy- I don't care. I didn't see that and do not know it personally. All I know is that my very expensive college education is not the ticket to prosperity I was told it was growing up, I can barely live on my own because rents and houses are too expensive and the car I bought now costs twice as much to fuel as it did when I bought it.

Republicans were asleep at the wheel on this one, and they will pay for it dearly at the ballot box.

Anonymous said...

Very OT, but I cant help myself, the latest snake oil from Mr. Mortgage:

"We have some changes coming to the default and foreclosure universes... These changes will impact the numbers and likely show the market is improving quickly. This also may give the impression that the housing market is improving. I will be on this story like pump on Cramer in order to bring you the real story."

Translation: Crap...some markets really are getting better - but I need to keep this thing going until ad revenue pays for my flagstone patio. Hmmm - I know, I'll get out ahead of this, cite some changes to CA law, and the bubbleheads wont know the difference.

"Be careful drawing any conclusions from the media headlines reporting declines in default and foreclosure activity until you have checked with me first. Even national reports may be impacted as CA represents such a large percentage of the national volume."

Translation: There is no bottom until I say there is - keep drinking my cool aid children - gotta pay for that 37 ft boat I have my eye on!!!!


The real question is what does he do when years from now, the "Al t A tsunami" hasnt come to Des Moines, IA, Jackson, MS, etc. and the bubbleheads are getting restless. What does he do when he can deny reality no longer...say he was wrong??? Wrap up his site & disappear without saying a word??? Either way, there are going to be legions of bubble sitters superbly pissed at him when they dont see the massive price declines he is predicting in their area...

Anonymous said...

"Either way, there are going to be legions of bubble sitters superbly pissed at him when they dont see the massive price declines he is predicting in their area..."

No Kidding. I can see it now, lynch mobs of bitter renters descending upon southern CA & stringing this guy up from the countrywide headquarters. This guy will get what he deserves!

Jeff said...

All I know is the Baltimore housing market is imploding.

Seeing huge markdowns on new housing. There is a plan up here in the hunt valley area that was just reduced from 850k to 599k.

Mr Mortgage info works here in bubblemore. Wait until fannie and freddie are run off and there is no money to lend.

Credit crisis is worseaning and every market is at risk as the deleverging of our economy continues.

Its going to hit Cali worse than Texas, but every market in every state will be affected by the lack of liquidity on Wall St.

flipdippy said...

I still strongly disagree with that assclown mortgage guy on how this all unfolds, but IMHO this is now going to go from bad to incredibly worse.

Most every bank and financial institution now needs to shore up their books to cover losses of all sorts of assets, and not just bad loans, and that sucking sound you're hearing is available capital/credit being sucked out of the markets to keep banks/institutions solvent.

Looks like anyone who isn't wealthy is going to have an uphill battle to get a mortgage over the coming months, regardless of whether you're buying a home that has dropped to below fair market value, or whether you have a decent pile of $$$ to pay towards a down payment.

ZMonet said...

Flipdippy, I tend to agree that this is going bad to worse, but I still think if you have 20% to put down on a house you won't have problems getting a loan. Can you explain why you would? As long as your loan is Fannie/Freddie conforming, the government is going to buy the loan so it is easily money for a mortgage broker to pocket the spread. Again, I agree that market conditions are getting worse, but if you overstate where things are at I think you lower your credibility. Of course I'm always open to being educated as to why my thinking is flawed.

Jeff said...

Zmonet

YOur thinking is good up until the Fannie/Freddie part.

Your thinking is sound on people with 20% down. They also must be at 36% DTI and have a good credit score going forward.

The one thing I disagree with you on is the Government buying loans.

Fannie and Freddie will continue to loan like bloated pigs until the end of 2009 per the bailout agreement.

At this point, Fannie and Freddie will either be run down and eliminated or severly reduced in size.

Either way their balance sheets will be 1/10 the size they are now. This will dramitically reduce the amount of money they have to lend, and will greatly affect home prices to the downside.

Fannie will be a headwind after 2009 versus the tailwind that they are now.

The hope is that private capital will start coming in to replace Fannie by the end of 2009.

Its yet to be seen wether or not the capital markets are back by then. Whatever happens, money will be getting much more expensive going forward. I talk a lot about this stuff on The Housing Time Bomb blog if u want to learn more..

GL

ZMonet said...

Jeff, I'll believe the elimination/down-sizing of Fannie/Freddie when I see it. Unless the housing issue resolves itself by the end of 2009, Fannie/Freddie will be around IMO. The government is doing everything it can to prop up the housing market. For instance I'd be *shocked* if the gov't doesn't extend the "jumbo non-conforming" loans past 2008.

Jeff said...

zmonet

I understand, however they won't have a choice.

The bond market is going to force them to stop the spending. The bond vigilantes stopped all of the government spending in '91 by taking bond yields on the 10 year from 3% up to 6%. This would put mortgage rates at about 9-10%

Risk is being priced back into the market, and the government can have all the jumbo availability they want.

If no one can qualify it won't matter. The government can prop up housing with liquidity all they want. The credit and lending standards have changed so it makes the availability of mortgages irrelevant.

Moeny is getting more expensive, and rates are going up. Spreads on debt are exploding. The housing game is over and there isn't a dam thing the government can do to stop it.

ZMonet said...

Jeff, I hope you're right. I'd like some return to fiscal rationality because those who said "it is different this time" clearly were wrong.

FYI -- I went to your blog, The Housing Time Bomb, any found it quite information. I'm adding it my list. Thanks for letting me know about it.

Jeff said...

Thanks Zmonet

Glad you enjoyed the blog.

bill said...

Off topic:

I hope everyone will join me in urging their elected representatives and senators to vote against the massive financial bailout as proposed by Secretary Paulson.

I called this weekend. I will also send e-mails. Sadly, this will probably be passed by the time snail mail gets to them, but my taxes shouldn't be spent to bail out all of the scammers getting rich off shady real estate dealing over the last several years.

Just my $.02

K2 said...

A friend recently drove thru Baltimore to see 5km's of boarded up houses. Noting the eerie silence of the community, he was shocked to see 100's living under a freeway.

And now the bubble's enablers get bailed out whilst the people live on cardboard?!!

We would love to see a photo encapsulating this sort of ghost town mentality, as we here in Australia will soon feel it.

You must be concerned about the the bankers bailout and the threat to the US's reputation as number 1?