Housing Bill Adds Second Lien Amendment; DAPs to Be Eliminated
The house just passed it's $300 billion plus(that the minimum) housing bill today, with the Senate getting ready to pass on to a President Bush who will sign the bill. Here's some of the hightlights:
The Act would authorize the FHA to endorse up to $300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for troubled subprime borrowers; the lender must, however, first write-down principal loan balances to 90 percent of current appraisal value.
It’s a proposition that in many cases would mean wiping out second lien holders, leading more than a few market participants to suggest recently that lenders would be unlikely to participate voluntarily — or, at the very least, that first lien holders would be held hostage by second lien holders.
This could get nasty as these banks are going to be fighting each other. The National City folks have to be shaking right now.
The House bill also adopts language from the Senate version of the package that would ban so-called seller-funded down-payment assistance programs; this was a hotly-contested area of difference when the Senate volleyed its version of the bill back to the House.
“We’re going to yield to the Senate on that,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) is quoted as saying in the Washington Post. “There are a lot of trade-offs in the bill.”
Seller-funded downpayment assistance allows property sellers, including largely home builders, to donate funds to a non-profit agency, which then “gifts” the funds to a borrower as a down payment on a new home. The non-profits make a tidy processing fee, while critics — and even government agencies such as the IRS — have for years blasted the practice as a legalized scam.
“These schemes also have the effect of artificially inflating nominal house prices, since the sale price is not the same as the amount netted, at the end of the day, by the seller,” noted Felix Salmon in his highly-read economics blog at Portfolio.com. “I’m sure that a lot of politicians and realtors reckon that house prices need all the artificial inflation they can get at the moment, but my feeling is that over the medium to long term, no good can come of [DAP programs].”
Here is a 10% drop in prices I did not originally count on. A lot of new homes were bought this way with home builders giving money to buyers through these non-profits. The IRS called it a scam and hated it. A lot of homes in the city basically lived on this type of assistance that realtors are going to have to go to sellers and basically explain the gig is up. Add that on top of the 10% write off and well if you bought before 2002 your probably ok but don't expect a windfall as we maybe heading for 2001 prices at this point when we bottom in 2 years.


15 comments:
Well at least they'll be finger-printing mortgage brokers now. That should solve EVERYTHING.
I know I said no more political BS, but here is some video of my favorite stammering Keebler elf throwing his two cents in ...the only man with the gonads to suggest abolishing the Fed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy6SlUpbnIU
This will ironically speed up the drop in some areas while in the burned out hoods of Baltimore it likely will make housing LESS affordable to those who can least afford it.
In the socialist regime running the city they will buy up a bunch of rowhomes and then let them rot for another 20-30 years so that they can eventually give them to a developer who will build housing only the top 1% of incomes can afford.
I bet if they just let nature take its course they would get bought up and redeveloped faster but no Shelia Dixon and crew know what's best for her dropout voters who decided that smoking crack and having kids for welfare is the path to prosperity.
I'm a little confused by your first part. Why would national city folks be afraid right now?
Last month they had the stock halted for a while because of the run to sell. They are currently the holder of a memorandum of understanding from regulators, basically the bank is on probation.
National City was one of the biggest players in the 80/20 market, they underwrote the 20% downpayment money for many buyers as a second mortgage.
With a implied write down in the housing bill on top of the current drop in prices they have a portfolio of junk; essentially loans worth nothing. This legislation requires both banks to work together to agree "per house" how much they will write down. My guess is most of the primary holders are going to want to write down there loan to lower the rate and say the hell with the second lien holder. In the end National City is a walking zombie that will implode.
I have just put in a post on the Baltimore Real Estate Wonk but I want to post it here as well.
"I cannot believe my eyes. A firm, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, shows Baltimore as the WORST region in the country for affordability. I have e-mailed them to inquire how they derive their numbers and am awaiting their reply. To see it with your own eyes, the link is below. After you open the page, click the link on the left labeled "Housing Cycle Barometer". I have been visiting your website for quite some time and have noticed many people writing about the absurd prices in the area. We were all right.
No one should buy a house around here until the sellers stop gouging us and return prices here back to normal.
I am so sick and tired of having the NAR quoted with the typical sunshine forecast. They make money only if we buy and their motivation could not be more obvious. Not one article quoting the NAR's prediction that the credit in the housing legislation just passed has to be PAID BACK. They're hoping no one will notice. They are shameful!
Here is the link: (don't forget to click the left link (housing cycle barometer).
http://www.realestateconsulting.com/Intelligence.aspx .
"
I'm not exactly sure if the 300 billion will ever get used. Once a upon a time (50's) lenders directly owned home loans. 95% of sub-prime loans are owned by bond holders, who resold the bonds as short term deriviate contacts. To get the okay to write down the loan in question could easily involve a couple of sets of trustees, and all it takes is one trustee to veto the write down or force a repurchase.
It will take some real changes in the industry to make this work. The only bank I see this working for is Wachovia becuase they own the "pick a pay" mess.
In the socialist regime running the city they will buy up a bunch of rowhomes and then let them rot for another 20-30 years so that they can eventually give them to a developer who will build housing only the top 1% of incomes can afford.
I bet if they just let nature take its course they would get bought up and redeveloped faster but no Shelia Dixon and crew know what's best for her dropout voters who decided that smoking crack and having kids for welfare is the path to prosperity.
I've commented before how private owners have bought chunks of homes in hopes of being bought out by a developer and they never sell because their prices are too high. For years.
Talked with a city employee not too long ago about a guy who repeatedly told the city he had a developer and plans and the whole works for 3 rowhomes he had. Several years later...never materialzed, and when the city finally got disposition, they found out he had moved in a woman after the judge made the final ruling against him.
The house she was in was an absolute wreck, falling in on itself, no electric, a "door" (hole in the wall if we're getting technical) connecting two of the buildings...
Within a week they got the woman out of the house (a judge in rent court could very well have given the woman 60 days to move, in spite of the illegality of the guy renting the place, but Housing helped move her, iirc).
The next day the first floor collapsed beneath a contractor inspecting the property to see what had to be done to secure it and keep it from falling down, keep people out, etc...
Developers are now making bids to redevelop the space (res or retail, I forget).
So yeah...let them private owners find sellers sometime in the next 15 years. We can wait.
I don't get it ...all of this talk in the national news about marked increases in foreclosures, record lows in home sales - yet the drops in the Baltimore suburbs are barely noticible. After a run-up of 50% during the boom, how is it that sellers are still holding out? Towson and Timonium are still sky-high. Is this a game of chicken?
For whatever reason, the runup in real estate in the Baltimore area began later and the decline started later than other areas of the country.
My personal observations having toured the most bubbly parts of the country in 2006 have led me to believe that we are about 6-12 months behind places like CA, AZ, and FL. We are JUST NOW starting to see foreclosures hit high end housing in the Balt. suburbs, and the subsequent price drops won't register for at least another 3 months or so.
This is all my personal opinion, your milage may vary, but this pet theory of mine seems to be holding up over the past 2 years or so.
I think it is. This is a standoff between sellers and buyers. Before I even consider looking at a house, I compare the asking price to the price the seller paid (easily available at http://sdatcert3.resiusa.org/rp_rewrite/). What I find almost uniformly falls into 2 categories. The fools who bought at the peak of the market (2005-2007) and are now finding they can't afford it. Those people are either taking a loss or, believe it or not, trying to get more than they paid. The 2nd category is the worst, these are people looking to double and even triple the price over what they paid. H*ll will freeze over before they get those prices.
I'm convinced they'll back off first or take their house off the market. Either way, it looks like buyers are finally getting the message and just staying away. Sellers will have to come down.
months of inventory seems to be a good guage of the buyer-seller face-off
anyone have historical data, and where we stand right now?
I check what people paid for their house too ... for houses i'm interested in, it is mostly people who are listing sky-high prices that will double triple their gains, because they've owned the houses for awhile. If they just dropped the price even a little bit, it would sell and they'd still make a fortune, but still they hold out.
How true.
Most of them in towson and timonium are folks who bought from 2003-2007 and are trying to sell. The some have exploding arms, others it's wishing prices. Many, MANY of them are over upgraded and they need to sell because they can't pay the 2nd mort they took out to finance those Viking kitchens.
Many of them don't have to move and will be stuck. They will just have to deal with what they have and invest in the community that they are in to preserve the value. That's actually why the gov wants people to own, it keeps them under control that way because it's hard to sell and move. The county will not go down as much as the city and the drops will be in 5%-10% range a year through 2010. It will then flat line for years. Ask anyone who bought in Rodgers Forge in the mid 90's and they will tell you it took around 10 years to get enought just to pay the realtor tax. The city is another story. Way too much speculation and prices ran up to values that made no sense considering the tax rate. Only a bubble could cause it to happen. The folks who bought with the idea of selling in 4 years when they have a kid and want to go to the county are getting hit with a double wammy of taxes going up and declining values. They are being dumb basically the longer they wait to more it will move down.
i heard that about rodgers forge in the 90s ... prices went up and then sat for a long time .. until the latest run up :) They are dropping though .. the list prices are high, but I heard of a home going for the $250's recently ...
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