Monday, July 21, 2008

Bubblemoney jobs gone; homes not selling for what they did before it burst. Guess what it's gone forever.

Yesterday’s Sun contained several articles on the current state of the economy and the effects of this credit fed housing bubble.

The lead story about the state of the economy and election contains the personal story about a mortgage broker who rode the bubble up and down and is now renting trying to get her life back together and focused on being an entrepreneur.

After graduation, a friend recommended the mortgage business. She "just showed up one day" in 2003 at the offices of Castle Point Mortgage in Elkridge and was hired on the spot.
Within four months, she rose from processing documents to selling, becoming the company's top producer.
Times were heady, with a boom-town mentality permeating the office cubicles. She learned to project maturity and confidence over the telephone by talking louder. She collected $241,000 during her first full year in sales. She wouldn't reach that figure again, but her commission-based income remained in six figures.
Her husband, Justin, took an administrative job in the office, earning only a fraction of what she made. Still, the couple had enough money for a $600,000 four-bedroom house in Hanover (monthly payment: $4,000), and a Porsche for Justin - later upgraded to a Maserati (monthly payment: $800). The couple vacationed in Miami and still saved plenty.


Now I know some of you especially when looking at the comments in the sun article are probably thinking how am I supposed to have sympathy for someone making 200k a year doing what is mostly clerical work in today’s world of desktop underwriting? To me I see someone who in a way lucked into a trend, figured it would last forever and also made some bad choices in personal relationships. (In the comments section Erin explains her separation)It’s interesting how once the money stops coming in things all fall apart.

I can tell this story a thousand times all around the metropolitan area, and it’s one of the reason houses when up so much especially in the 2005/2006 peak. The people who created this ponzi scheme started drinking their own koolaid. Now many of them are bag holders holding on via credit cards hoping that somehow some sucker is going to come along and overpay for a house when everyone knows that if you paying more than 2004 price in Baltimore now your WAY overpaying and just making the buyer rich and you house poor.
My guess is that she will eventually find something, probably not at the income level before because honestly the position of mortgage broker has the feeling of outsourced to India written all over it and what needs touched to be a clerical position. The new reality is the trend of continuing downward pressure on wages will depress house appreciation for much longer than people expect(hope). I wish her luck and hopefully she’s learned a lot of life lessons in the experience.

In the same day we had an article that to those of us bubbleheads know as common sense but to sellers is well a disheartening reality.

Here’s the list and guess what’s number one, PRICE!!!
1. Sale price is too high
2. Location is a turnoff
3. House has no visual pizzazz
4. Condition is critical
5. We just don't like it


Now I hate to sound preachy but price fixes all of the above. This will come up more and more as baby boomers realize that they need to sell and will cut the price to get that cash they need because they need that money to live on. As I pointed out before living in Maryland pretty much requires peak earnings to just survive for most folks.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

I concur with your appraisal of the Sun article, and would like to comment about one of the real estate agent recommendations.

In the article a real estate agent was quoted saying “sellers should consider renting” as apposed to dropping price and selling. Unless the house was built after 1979, it will need a lead paint certificate in order to be rented, (lead paint abatement cost between $5000, and $10,000 per house). Rental properties often sell at a discount when they are put back on the market, so I doubt sellers will benefit from the strategy, and could actual losses money or get sued if they don’t follow state guidelines.

neeraj said...

Phew ! Making $200k making calls and writing reports..While I slugged my way through masters and PhD and now will start on a job which pays $90k+..but guess what I learnt living debt free on a measly graduate school stipend and now feel like a king making 90k...

Urban Flight said...

A drama major making a quarter million per year right out of school? Now she's making a third of that (240/3 = 80K/yr) and she's complaining? What an asshole!

The conspicuous consumption of these nuvo riche d-bags during the bubble years was truly sickening considering that 99% of them had zero marketable skills other than filling out paperwork.

80K/yr is hardly a sob story though. I'd feel much better if she was making $40K/yr like I was after my industry's bubble. I acquired a computer science degree right at the tail end of the dot com bubble and watched my expected first year salary get cut in half during my last semester.

I had to bust my ass in tech courses while this walking boob job was probably dropping trou' at the rush week kegger. Then this no talent ass-hat gets a quarter mil a year while I actually take a cut in pay from my job tending bar to enter my field upon graduation. She should be happy for the brief and fleeting run of sheer luck she experienced for she and her colleagues did absolutely nothing to deserve the levels of compensation they enjoyed during the bubble years.

I have zero sympathy for her. Quite the opposite, I revel now that she and others like her have to give up the ill gotten spoils of their unprecedented douche-baggery.

Anonymous said...

Urban Flight .. you sound like me. I had to take a paycut from working a horrible insurance job to enter into my tech field, because of the dot com bust during my last quarter of school. I feel like I'm still treading water, paying for that expensive loan. I would have been better off staying in insurance. I agree ... not a whole lot of sympathy. She was overpaid to being with ...

bill said...

She made good money. Good for her. No ill will here, for my part.

HOWEVER, I can say that buying these peoples' excessive consumption on EBAY for a 50-90% discount is sweet, very sweet indeed.

The cherry on the sundae will be when I buy the foreclosure for 60% off peak.

Anonymous said...

I thought you guys might like to read more details about the Countrywide scandal:

Angelo's Many "Friends"
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/07/16/Countrywide-Deals-Exposed#page1?ref=patrick.net

Laura

Anonymous said...

Home Prices Keep Falling, Prolonging Financial Crisis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25802673

It looks like they are finally starting to get how deep the price correction will be. They are finally starting to look at price to income ratios and doing price vs rent comparisons.

I still don't see how bailing out Fannie and Freddie and homeowners helps. Investments in Fannie and Freddie are NOT guaranteed by the U.S. government. Therefore, the taxpayers are under no legal obligation to bail them out. Also, government should not interfere in the private contracts made between reckless borrowers and lenders to put taxpayer dollars at risk.

Finally, they say we need to nationalize these companies. No, we don't. Homeownership should not be subsidized by the taxpayers. It is not a right.

Laura

prince of belair said...

Uh-huh

Enjoy your e-bay discounts, bub

I still do not see these price drops on our locale....sure, in Cali, Florida, and nevada the jig is up. The piper is being paid for the irrational increases.

WHERE ARE THESE DROPS IN BALTIMORE?Market is slow, due to the paranoia of the moment. However, this previously, chronically underpriced area will not sink. I have been saying this for 5 years! 60% off at foreclosre? HA! Dream on, dream on, dream on until your dreams come true...

-Fresh

Anonymous said...

I am in complete agreement with those of you condemning the whining of the mortgage broker. She should be grateful she did as well as she did, for as long as she did. I don't see how being a mortage broker gets you the lifestyle she got. It's not like she was a physician or something else that actually contributes to the quality of life.

As for Mr. Fresh, give it up. Baltimore and Baltimore county (which are your environs) are falling. You are dreaming!

Anonymous said...

Mr. Fresh,

Lets say Bel Air is the place to be..a Manhattan of Baltimore, but as more and more and more new developments get complete, there will be even more inventory. So, people who wanted to live in Bel Air might decide to move to a cheap condo in Balto City just to save on gas and because there are so many empty ones, it becomes a buyer's dream.
Then, even Bel Air, the best spot ever to live, will have no choice but to lower prices. Do you understand that home construction was at an all time high? Now, people are leaving foreclosed homes, the economy sucks, so people want to sell for money...the inventory is going to grow and grow.
I avoid Bel Air at all costs; I hate it, but I know you love it. But, I imagine there were many new developments there.
Let's see what happens.
-Rich

prince of belair said...

Headline:

BUSH TO SIGN HOUSING BILL!

Keep the party going!

-Fresh

bill said...

Fresh is an endless source of amusement.

I have already begun to see homes that were formerly priced in the seven figure range now foreclosed and ASKING prices of 40-50% discounted off the prices of THE SAME HOUSE for sale 2 years ago before it went into foreclosure.

So now go ahead and tell me that I don't see what I am seeing. Who am I going to believe, you or my own lying eyes.

By the way. Try getting a jumbo loan. You better come with perfect credit, 15-20% down, and be ready to pay upwards of 8 or 9 percent.

urban flight said...

Kevin,

There are idiots on both side of the aisle. I wouldn't lump myself in with the rest of his internet fanboys but I liked Ron Paul this time around.

Why?

Decriminalizing and taxing ALL drugs

...abolishing the Federal Reserve, FCC, and IRS (yes, the federal budget could be supported by sales tax alone - especially if you eliminate useless agencies starting with the three just listed)

...allowing NATURAL FREE MARKET FORCES to control things like real estate prices

...ending Team America World Police

...all fantastic ideas in my view but political suicide if you're running for public office apparently.

The fact that he looked like a Keebler elf and had no gift for public speaking didn't help much either. Then again it didn't stop GW from serving two terms.

Sorry 'bout the rant ...I'll refrain from the political BS going forward. Not like the poor schmuck is going to be on the ballot anyway.

Flight