Thursday, July 3, 2008

Happy 4th of July picnic discussion time

Just want to remind all of you on this Independence Day weekend as you go to picnics and talk to your neighbors and friends do not forget to bring up the fact that the worst of the housing market is yet to come.

Many of you folks on the sidelines 2 years ago were mocked, made fun of, looked at in disbelief that you could not afford to buy a house that met your expectations.

What a difference 2 years makes. Today those of us with cash saved up, no credit card or HELOC's bills up to our ears can be the seen as the smart ones, while the folks who you privately wondered how in the hell can they afford this place avoid the subject completly. Why? Because well they CANNOT afford the place.

I wanted to share some stats with you about Baltimore County today. Take a look at this story about the addition of government staff to help with the forecloures going on. The irony of all this is next year is going to be an interesting one for local governments. I predict layoffs as the transfer tax boom of the past couple years drops off the radar.


Baltimore County Q1 Foreclosure Events = 938


Baltimore County had 930 foreclosure events in the first quarter of 2008, a
9.5 percent dip from the end of 2007 when there were 1,028. But those numbers
are in contrast to a year ago, when first-quarter foreclosure events totaled
236.


Wait a minute.....I thought this only happened in the city?

“I’m receiving a lot of calls from people who never thought they would be
faced with foreclosure,” Foreman said.

Ok...well it only happens in the poor and predominently lower class African-American neighborhoods.

First-quarter foreclosures events were highest in Dundalk with 95. But
Randallstown and Owings Mills were second and fourth at 85 and 71. Reisterstown
tallied 31 in the first quarter. Together, the three northwest corridor
communities accounted for 20 percent of county foreclosures.

Reisterstown? I thought that was the land of millionares, that's where all the Raven's players live!

Harvey agrees. “We have heard from everyone. From very modest income homeowners
to folks with the $600,000 house in the valley. It also impacts your ability to
rent because of [bad] credit ratings.”

Yeah this is true but you cannot squeeze blood from a turnup. I mean how else are you going to pay off credit cards from Nordstrom and your lease on your Lexus?


Homeowners also need to take control and look at cutting spending,
officials say. “What are we willing to do to help ourselves? The programs will
help if we work together,” she said. “Buying a house is so important – the
biggest purchase you’ll make in your whole life – you need to educate yourself
before you buy a home.”


Have a good holiday folks and be safe the County and State Police are out in
force, need the revenues!

10 comments:

prince of belair said...

but in the 21015 Kingdom, we will drink and be merry - because we are NOT seeing any of this happen. Happy 4th!

-Fresh

justin said...

Hi Prince:

Do you have a blog or something I could read to explain your rationale? I understand that BelAir is well north of the city, but what I don't understand is why the housing market there would be boosted by the BRAC.

I thought that only Fort Meade was being expanded, and that is well south of Baltimore. With fuel prices being what they are wouldn't most people want to live south of Baltimore, expensive as it is?

Honestly curious........

Adam said...

Currently there are 22 REO's for sale in 21015.

http://tinyurl.com/5vae5y

Currently over 220 homes are for sale in the 21015 zip code. A HELL of a lot.

http://tinyurl.com/5l3ys8

So around 10% are reo's. National average is around 1%. Keep drinking that koolaid Prince.

That zipcode is a disaster area.

prince of belair said...

Uh, yeah

Harford county will benefit from the HUGE influx to Aberdeen Proving Ground between now and 2011 21015 is the zip code with the types of nice, luxury homes and proximity to work that this high-tech, educated crowd is looking for.

BRAC will bring in 6,533 new households to Harford County - so I am not too worried about the 220 home inventory!

Here is your blog link:

http://www.harfordbracblog.blogspot.com/

Location, location, location!

-Fresh

Anonymous said...

"Just want to remind all of you on this Independence Day weekend as you go to picnics and talk to your neighbors and friends do not forget to bring up the fact that the worst of the housing market is yet to come."

i laughed out loud when i read this - nothing like chatting about the declining home prices to brighten the festive holiday mood hahaha!
i came across this blog after clicking on my long unused link to the baltimorehousing blog, and glad to see people are still tracking and commenting...the peter schiff video is pretty funny, the real estate agent was pretty aggressive huh. would you buy anything from her? as they say, only in L.A.

Anonymous said...

Please do yourselves a favor and check out Money Magazine's predictions for the housing market for May 2009. Copy and paste this url into your browser: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/real_estate/100_forecast.moneymag/index.htm

If you can, copy the data to a spreadsheet and sort it by the column headed "Price Change (5 years)". You will see Baltimore at the 6th worst spot in the nation (equal to LA of all places). Anyone who still thinks that prices here did not go up beyond all fundamentals has a screw loose.

Anyone who thinks prices here won't fall significantly has several loose screws

prince of belair said...

Well good news is that I am the Prince of Belair, NOT of Baltimore.

Not in MY neighborhood

-Fresh

Anonymous said...

Fresh,

If it's so good in your neighborhood, why not buy another house at the sellers asking price? You might be able to make a quick profit. Everything is peachy in Belair. Why not?

justin said...

@anonymous - I think Fresh is in it for the long haul, give it 5-10 years with the BRAC and the market correcting, and I think he just might be in a good position.

@Prince - Thanks for the link, I wasn't aware of the expansion going on at the proving grounds.

Anonymous said...

Fresh,

Not to burst your bubble, but the future employees at Aberdeen are more likely to be interested in PayDay loans than buying overpriced housing.